Amateur rocketry group (ERPS, the Experimental Rocket Propulsion Society, at www.erps.org) working on liquid fuel rockets

Randall Clague | 2 Jun 2003 01:14

Re: HTHL vs VTVL

On Sat, 31 May 2003 10:17:01 -0700 (PDT), Adrian Tymes
<wingcat <at> pacbell.net> wrote:

>> >if you can
>> >demonstrate that P(X_fail) and P(Y_fail) are each
>> at
>> >most 1E-3 (say, run 1000 test flights in which
>> neither
>> >X nor Y fail)
>> 
>> You need 2998 flights to demonstrate that with 95%
>> confidence.
>
>Eh?  1000 runs where X does not fail, therefore
>P(X_fail) < 1/1000.  Ditto Y.  These just happen to be
>the same 1000 runs.

Your probability numbers are not very meaningful unless you can
demonstrate that they have some correlation with reality.  This
correlation is called confidence.  If you only do 1000 runs, your
confidence in your P(X_fail) being less than .001 is only 68%.  That's
a 1 in 3 chance that your good luck is just that, luck.  Most
experimenters use a 95% confidence level.  It's three times as strict
in terms of number of samples it requires.

>I thought 1E-6 was the threshold for a single launch,
>while 30E-6 was the threshold for a group of launches.
>My calculations here were for a single flight.

You need to demonstrate EC < 30E-6 for every flight.

(Continue reading)

David Weinshenker | 2 Jun 2003 19:08

Picon

[reg.aff][Fwd: [WAMEX] new call for letter writing!]

From another list: update on the legislative campaign. -dw

Ismaeel Abdur-Rasheed wrote:
> 
> from John Wickman:
> 
> "It is time to work your "magic" again with letters and phone
>  calls directed to the ATFE and the House of Representatives. 
> In the last few months, your letters and phone calls have been 
> the key to persuading Senators and their staffs to support S724. 
> All of our efforts have focused on the Senate and it has paid off 
> more than we are permitted to publicly disclose. S724 is in good 
> shape in the Senate.
> 
> Unfortunately, the House of Representatives is a different story."
> 
> see http://www.space-rockets.com/congress for complete details!
> 
> - iz
> 
> help save hobby rocketry! see http://www.rocketreporter.org
> for news and information (updated daily)

David Masten | 2 Jun 2003 20:19

Work update from the weekend

The "Peroxide Conspiracy" met Saturday and Sunday to work on various
pieces of equipment for concentrating and purifying HTP. Pierce made
modifications to a carboy to make it a transfer bottle for getting H2O2
from the drum and into the concentration column safely. Dave W. started
work on his "teacart" refrigeration unit. This thing just looks cool,
and as I understand it it is not just cool, but capable of making things
damn cold too. As in -40. While much progress was made more work still
needs to be done.

The "Peroxide Conspiracy" is currently the high priority, must get done
ASAP project.

Dave

--

-- 
David Masten <dmasten <at> piratelabs.org>

Michael Wallis | 2 Jun 2003 21:00

Next Meeting ...

The next meeting of the Experimental Rocket Propulsion Society will be
held this THURSDAY evening at the South Sunnyvale Coco's starting at 8:00pm.

Items for meeting #260 (05 Jun 2003):

 - Admin Teams
        - CMT
        - Documentation
        - IT
        - Liaisons
        - Logistics
        - PAO
        - Treasurer
    - Development Teams
        - Chief Scientist
        - Flight Controls
        - Propellants/Sparger/FF
        - Regulatory Affairs
        - Safety
        - Testing
    - Project Status
        - Composites
        - GizmoCopter
        - KISS
        - POGO
        - SmartFlight
        - Spike

The address is:

(Continue reading)

cpwinter | 2 Jun 2003 22:47

Picon

Our CoCo's is closing (Frak!)

    I just received word (from the manager) that the CoCo's where we hold 
our meetings is closing permanently on Wednesday.

    Look here for an announcement when we get this sorted out and have 
lined up a new meeting place.

Chris W.

cpwinter | 3 Jun 2003 03:23

Picon

OK, crisis averted.

    I went over to the Oakmead CoCo's and was able to book us for this 
Thursday night.

    There I discovered that all of the CoCo's Bakery Restaurants in the Bay 
Area are closing for 3-4 days, in rotation, for kitchen renovation. So 
/this/ is what the manager at the S. Mary location meant. He didn't tell me 
about the renovation -- just said they were closing.

    Anyway, we have a meeting place for Thursday.

Chris

Adrian Tymes | 3 Jun 2003 05:11

Re: OK, crisis averted.

--- cpwinter <at> rahul.net wrote:
>     I went over to the Oakmead CoCo's and was able
> to book us for this 
> Thursday night.

Address and directions?

Bill Clawson | 3 Jun 2003 05:44

Picon

Re: OK, crisis averted.

>Adrian wrote:
>
>directions?
>
>--- cpwinter <at> rahul.net wrote:
>>     I went over to the Oakmead CoCo's and was able
>> to book us for this 
>> Thursday night.
>> 

I think I saw it this afternoon.  The Oakmead CoCo's
is at Oakmead and Lawrence expressway, one block south
of the Lawrence/Hwy 101 intersection.  If going south
on Lawrence, take the first left and then a right into
the CoCo's parking lot.  

Anyone, please correct me if I'm wrong.

Bill

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Bill Clawson | 3 Jun 2003 05:58

Picon

Scaled Composites flys their X-prize vehicle

It looks like Scaled Composites is in the flight test
phase of their X-prize vehicle as seen in this article
on Space.com:

<
http://www.space.com/businesstechnology/technology/rutan_tested_030531.html
>

Here's a link to the flight test pictured in the
Space.com article above:

<
http://www.scaled.com/projects/tierone/New_Index/flight_data/flt_data.htm#combined
>

__________________________________
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Yahoo! Calendar - Free online calendar with sync to Outlook(TM).
http://calendar.yahoo.com

Randall Clague | 3 Jun 2003 18:20

Re: Scaled Composites flys their X-prize vehicle

On Mon, 2 Jun 2003 20:58:45 -0700 (PDT), Bill Clawson
<billclawson <at> yahoo.com> wrote:

>It looks like Scaled Composites is in the flight test
>phase of their X-prize vehicle as seen in this article
>on Space.com:
>
><
>http://www.space.com/businesstechnology/technology/rutan_tested_030531.html
>>

According to Peter Diamandis two weeks ago tomorrow, that was their
captive carry test, done the day before.

-R

-- "We've all heard that a million monkeys banging on a million typewriters
will eventually reproduce the entire works of Shakespeare.  Now, thanks to
the Internet, we know this is not true." -- Robert Wilensky, UC Berkeley

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