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samy jones | 2 Dec 2006 17:32
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orestes_mendoza | 4 Dec 2006 04:54
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Re: Generalized Effects of Removal (and implications)


The "two-card cumulative" column lists the total effect when both cards
are removed at the same time. The "two-card marginal" lists the effect
of both cards minus the effect of the first card alone, so it's a way
of isolating the effect of the second card of the same rank given that
the first card has been removed. The idea is to see how robust the
assumption is that the value of the first card alone can be used as a
constant value for all of the cards of that rank. The fewer levels of
interaction you have to trace to find marginal tag values that are
notably different, the less robust the assumption for the cards in
question (with other assessments of robustness possible than the merely
subjective, although the merely subjective can be illuminating here).

Note, as I said in my original post, that the Seven is immediately eye-
catching, as its two-card marginal value isn't close to its one-card
value. Note also that this is not exactly a news flash to one-deck
specialists, but that the fact that it isn't supports as worthwhile my
desire to examine two-card marginal values. On a related note, I was
playing single deck tonight (I am in Nevada at the moment), and I split
Aces against a dealer upcard of Seven. I received a Nine and a Four
for my trouble (the casino allowed one hit only on split Aces). The
dealer then revealed her hole card, also a Seven, and drew a third
Seven to beat both of my hands. The special irritation I experienced
should be no surprise to anyone who has been reading my posts.

O.M.

--- In blackjackcardcounterscafe <at> yahoogroups.com, sage frog
<sagefr0g <at> ...> wrote:
>
> your posts have been interesting. truthfully a lot of what your
posting is over my head. can anyone explain what two-card marginal EOR
means. i believe i understand what one and two card EOR means.
>
> best regards,
> mr fr0g
>

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orestes_mendoza | 4 Dec 2006 05:16
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blackjackinfo.com



I doubt that this is of any particular concern to anyone, but I want
to be on record about it: For some reason, my computer or Internet
connection does not shake hands well with Ken Smith's
blackjackinfo.com bulletin board. Despite the obvious competence of
the people posting there and the lively and helpful debates that
ensue, I have become weary of having every other attempt I make to
post to the board backfire. I am removing it from my "Internet milk
route" and will not be posting there again.

Normally, I wouldn't mention this measure elsewhere, but a recent
post of mine drew several curious replies, and I'm afraid it isn't
going to be possible for me to reply in turn to them. I hope no one
interprets my actions as aloofness, and I will make a short post to
my blog intended to be a generic response to all of the
blackjackinfo.com posters.

Again, I apologize to anyone who finds this announcement to be boring
and irrelevant, but I do feel some obligation in the matter.

O.M.

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sage frog | 4 Dec 2006 08:48
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Re: Generalized Effects of Removal (and implications)

got it. thank you for the explaination.
another question if i may. by the term levels of interaction do you mean that if say one card of a given rank presents and then another that there may be some effect going on as a result of the first card having come out that 'corrupts' the tag value of the second card of the same rank that comes out?
err yep those dealer three sevens for a twenty one are like you say no suprise and definately irratating.

orestes_mendoza <orestes_mendoza <at> yahoo.com> wrote:
The "two-card cumulative" column lists the total effect when both cards
are removed at the same time. The "two-card marginal" lists the effect
of both cards minus the effect of the first card alone, so it's a way
of isolating the effect of the second card of the same rank given that
the first card has been removed. The idea is to see how robust the
assumption is that the value of the first card alone can be used as a
constant value for all of the cards of that rank. The fewer levels of
interaction you have to trace to find marginal tag values that are
notably different, the less robust the assumption for the cards in
question (with other assessments of robustness possible than the merely
subjective, although the merely subjective can be illuminating here).

Note, as I said in my original post, that the Seven is immediately eye-
catching, as its two-card marginal value isn't close to its one-card
value. Note also that this is not exactly a news flash to one-deck
specialists, but that the fact that it isn't supports as worthwhile my
desire to examine two-card marginal values. On a related note, I was
playing single deck tonight (I am in Nevada at the moment), and I split
Aces against a dealer upcard of Seven. I received a Nine and a Four
for my trouble (the casino allowed one hit only on split Aces). The
dealer then revealed her hole card, also a Seven, and drew a third
Seven to beat both of my hands. The special irritation I experienced
should be no surprise to anyone who has been reading my posts.

O.M.

--- In blackjackcardcounterscafe <at> yahoogroups.com, sage frog
<sagefr0g <at> ...> wrote:
>
> your posts have been interesting. truthfully a lot of what your
posting is over my head. can anyone explain what two-card marginal EOR
means. i believe i understand what one and two card EOR means.
>
> best regards,
> mr fr0g
>





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orestes_mendoza | 14 Dec 2006 19:46
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Generic Reply now on my blog

The "generic reply" to the blackjackinfo.com thread is now on my blog:

http://360.yahoo.com/orestes_mendoza

We now return you to normal blackjack discussion. :)

O.M.

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orestes_mendoza | 14 Dec 2006 20:11
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Re: Generalized Effects of Removal (and implications)

--- In blackjackcardcounterscafe <at> yahoogroups.com, sage frog
<sagefr0g <at> ...> wrote:
>
> got it. thank you for the explanation.
> another question if i may. by the term levels of interaction do
you mean that if say one card of a given rank presents and then
another that there may be some effect going on as a result of the
first card having come out that 'corrupts' the tag value of the
second card of the same rank that comes out?

"Corrupts" is not exactly the word: the effect of the second card is
altered (from its single-card tag effect) on a contingency basis by
the first having appeared. Again, the Sevens are the most impressive
example of the phenomenon I found among the two-card, same-rank-only
data. Blackjack is an essentially nonlinear game,
although "linearization" (by one definition or another) does make
substantial progress in making potent generalizations about it. What
I am doing with this concept is tracing the full scope
of "linearization" by a particularly broad (but not unknown within
quantitative disciplines) definition of the term and noting that
single-card tags are only a special case of the broader one.

By "level of interaction," I essentially mean the number of cards you
are removing before computing the cumulative effect and the resulting
number of data points you will produce if you note all possible
combinations of that number of cards. You can compute, for example,
the cumulative effects of any two cards of different ranks (e.g. the
cumulative effect of removing a Six and a Five) and compare them with
their single-card effects to see if you learn something. You can
also proceed to assess the cumulative effects of three-card
combinations, four-card, &c. In general, it's considered junky to
consider effects of a certain level without considering the ones at
lower levels as well. However, it is not as junky to consider
effects of multiples of one rank of card (e.g. four Sevens) without
fully considering all multi-rank EOR's at or beneath that level. It
is also noted that it is possible to err too far in the direction of
specificity, by considering additional levels of interaction past the
point where it is marginally worthwhile.

> err yep those dealer three sevens for a twenty one are like you
say no suprise and definately irratating.
>

For some reason, dealer hands in my world get weirder than player
hands ever would (I rarely get very far off the beaten track unless
I'm in a DOA, DAS game and get a bunch of bets out at once). On the
same trip as the 7-7-7 dealer trifecta, I witnessed a dealer (who had
been too hot for my taste already that day) pull a seven-card 21. I
asked her sarcastically how often per day she managed to pull a seven-
card 21, but she indicated that her English wasn't sufficient to
converse on the matter.

O.M.

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samy jones | 14 Dec 2006 20:08
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walthamster | 14 Dec 2006 22:47
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Arbitrage or "scalping"?

Does any one here make money with arbitrage or scalping. This is where
two bookmakers have a different opinion on the same event and price it
accordingly, eg two tennis players are offered at +105 by different
sportsbooks in a given match. Whoever wins or loses, by betting $1000
on both you should make a $50 profit.

I've just been trying this out and it seems too good to be true. Does
any one have experiences they could share?

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mercedesblake | 25 Dec 2006 00:14
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hi

hi wat is up

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