Re: Lean failure at Toyota
Bill Caputo <list-subscriber <at> williamcaputo.com>
2010-02-01 14:29:10 GMT
On Mon, Feb 1, 2010 at 7:42 AM, Michael KENNY <kenny <at> acm.org> wrote:
> What evidence would there need to be for a team to say Lean or agile
> doesn't work for us?
What evidence would say they do? IMO, its the wrong question. The
issue for those of us who think a lot about software process and how
to be successful at delivering software, and so forth is more
fundamental. Tim's got the right idea: Success is rare. More
specifically, success is a number between 0 and 100 and for most
endeavors just being slightly above the norm will result in huge
gains.
Kent's been blogging a good bit about poker and how its shaping his
thinking. I've been playing poker very actively this past year as
well, and one thing its taught me is that binary notions of win/lose,
pass/fail, success/fail are fine in chess, math and other precise
activities (like coding) where complete information is possible (in a
narrow context) but most activities live in contexts that require a
probabilistic definition of success and so a strategy that increases
one's chances to a positive expectation is successful, improvement is
looking for ways to improve a point or two and no strategy will get
you to 100% or even close, the vast majority won't get to 50%.
We keep making the mistake that a methodology (a practice, a value, a
language, a book, a tool, etc) is going to provide, or be the basis
for, or an element of a formula that makes success a certainty, and so
when we see a failure it must be because the item in question was
misused or abandoned. Lean isn't a formula for success any more than
Agile was; both might help improve EV by some number of points (at
best) assuming the other factors in a given context don't dwarf their
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