How to predict next elements in pattern sequence?

Hello,

I have simple sequences with nominal values analogical to this:

a b c a b d a b c a b d a b c a b

The above sequence alternate two patterns "a b c" and "a b d" and the
expected next element in the sequence is "d", as the current pattern is "a b
d".

I am looking for a method to do the similar sequence prediction using weka.
What should I be looking for in weka? GSP?

Thanks!
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Re: Sparse ARFF files

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Some Confusion with Evaluation framework in Weka API

Hi , 

I am having slight confusion using weka.Evaluation framework.I am using
contact-lens.arff.My  code is as follows 

  //clens = load arff(contact-lens.arff ....)

Evaluation evaluation = new Evaluation(cles);
		evaluation.useNoPriors();

               J48 j48 = new J48();
		evaluation.crossValidateModel(new J48(), clens, 3,
				new Random(7));

  //print stastiscs using evaluation.printStats(..)..

I am having trouble with the random seed value. If I change the value the
value 7,8,9 I get different value for ROC area , RMS error and few other. Is
it usual? In my opinion this value must be constant despite random seed
value. Can you please explain me if I am missing anything ? This case
applies to other algorithm too (I tested ID3 and NN).  

Thanks.

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Re: Some Confusion with Evaluation framework in Weka API

>
> I am having trouble with the random seed value. If I change the value the
> value 7,8,9 I get different value for ROC area , RMS error and few other. Is
> it usual? In my opinion this value must be constant despite random seed
> value.

Why do you expect the values to be constant?
If they were constant, why would there be a random seed?

Bernhard

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Bernhard Pfahringer, Dept. of Computer Science, University of Waikato
http://www.cs.waikato.ac.nz/~bernhard                  +64 7 838 4041

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Re: Some Confusion with Evaluation framework in Weka API

Thanks Bernhard  for quick reply. I think I am overlooking some basic idea.
Please explain what is wrong with  my assumption : Given same confusion
matrix M1 and M2 in both case with same data and algorithm but with
different random value(8, 9 as previous) why am I getting two different 
value for AUC and mean absolute error.

I was curious because with random seed 1 i get AUC of 0.937 and 3 I get
0.874. Confusion matrix is same in both case.Which value should I trust and
why?

Can you please clear my confusion?

Thanks in advance.

Bernhard Pfahringer-2 wrote:
> 
>>
>> I am having trouble with the random seed value. If I change the value the
>> value 7,8,9 I get different value for ROC area , RMS error and few other.
>> Is
>> it usual? In my opinion this value must be constant despite random seed
>> value.
> 
> Why do you expect the values to be constant?
> If they were constant, why would there be a random seed?
> 
> Bernhard
> 
> ---------------------------------------------------------------------
> Bernhard Pfahringer, Dept. of Computer Science, University of Waikato
> http://www.cs.waikato.ac.nz/~bernhard                  +64 7 838 4041
> 
> _______________________________________________
> Wekalist mailing list
> Send posts to: Wekalist <at> list.scms.waikato.ac.nz
> List info and subscription status:
> https://list.scms.waikato.ac.nz/mailman/listinfo/wekalist
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> http://www.cs.waikato.ac.nz/~ml/weka/mailinglist_etiquette.html
> 
> 

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Re: Some Confusion with Evaluation framework in Weka API

> Thanks Bernhard  for quick reply. I think I am overlooking some basic idea.
> Please explain what is wrong with  my assumption : Given same confusion
> matrix M1 and M2 in both case with same data and algorithm but with
> different random value(8, 9 as previous) why am I getting two different
> value for AUC and mean absolute error.
>

AUC is about ranking, using the probs to sort your examples.
Accuracy (and the confusion matrix) depend on a specific threshold.
So if your probabilities "sort" the examples differently in different
runs on either side of the threshold, you can get the exact same
accuracy, but different AUC values.

> I was curious because with random seed 1 i get AUC of 0.937 and 3 I get
> 0.874. Confusion matrix is same in both case.Which value should I trust and
> why?

I suppose you are using a rather "unstable" algorithm, and/or a small number
of examples, and/or have a high number of class values. What you experience
is that cross-validation has some variance as well. If the variance is as high
as it seems in your case, I'd repeat at least ten times with a new seed each
time and take the average. BTW, this is the default for the Experimenter:
10x10fold cross-validation, to get more robust estimates.

hth, Bernhard

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Continuous Variable Prediction

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Re: Continuous Variable Prediction

Hi Chris,

I am looking for an answer to a similar question about predicting sequences.
Is seems that current state of data mining is all about classification, and
concept of time and sequential relations is not addressed yet (besides
linear approximations such as regression or SVM).

Have you tried to apply numerical extrapolation methods to predict your
variables?

Cheers,
Yavinty

Cerin wrote:
> 
> Hi,
> 
> Sorry if this is a newbie question, but what algorithms in Weka support
> predicting a continuous variable? I'm new to data mining, so I'm not sure
> what the formal terminology is. Going through the docs, it looks like
> nearly
> all the algorithms are intended for classification or assigning a discrete
> label to an observation, not predicting a continuous variable.
> 
> Regards,
> Chris
> 
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Re: Some Confusion with Evaluation framework in Weka API

 I got the  concepts.
Thanks.

Bernhard Pfahringer-2 wrote:
> 
>> Thanks Bernhard  for quick reply. I think I am overlooking some basic
>> idea.
>> Please explain what is wrong with  my assumption : Given same confusion
>> matrix M1 and M2 in both case with same data and algorithm but with
>> different random value(8, 9 as previous) why am I getting two different
>> value for AUC and mean absolute error.
>>
> 
> AUC is about ranking, using the probs to sort your examples.
> Accuracy (and the confusion matrix) depend on a specific threshold.
> So if your probabilities "sort" the examples differently in different
> runs on either side of the threshold, you can get the exact same
> accuracy, but different AUC values.
> 
>> I was curious because with random seed 1 i get AUC of 0.937 and 3 I get
>> 0.874. Confusion matrix is same in both case.Which value should I trust
>> and
>> why?
> 
> I suppose you are using a rather "unstable" algorithm, and/or a small
> number
> of examples, and/or have a high number of class values. What you
> experience
> is that cross-validation has some variance as well. If the variance is as
> high
> as it seems in your case, I'd repeat at least ten times with a new seed
> each
> time and take the average. BTW, this is the default for the Experimenter:
> 10x10fold cross-validation, to get more robust estimates.
> 
> hth, Bernhard
> 
> ---------------------------------------------------------------------
> Bernhard Pfahringer, Dept. of Computer Science, University of Waikato
> http://www.cs.waikato.ac.nz/~bernhard                  +64 7 838 4041
> 
> _______________________________________________
> Wekalist mailing list
> Send posts to: Wekalist <at> list.scms.waikato.ac.nz
> List info and subscription status:
> https://list.scms.waikato.ac.nz/mailman/listinfo/wekalist
> List etiquette:
> http://www.cs.waikato.ac.nz/~ml/weka/mailinglist_etiquette.html
> 
> 

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Re: Continuous Variable Prediction

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